Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.318922 0.373811 0.433542 0.503144 0.581786 0.667650 0.768244
2025-04-20 0.234284 0.303095 0.384003 0.485328 0.607933 0.750561 0.928028
2025-04-27 0.170926 0.244213 0.337235 0.462072 0.623101 0.821547 1.082032
2025-05-04 0.128476 0.203129 0.305430 0.452278 0.653532 0.915135 1.275563
2025-05-11 0.095882 0.168588 0.276389 0.441904 0.682529 1.011602 1.485960
2025-05-18 0.066313 0.131382 0.236592 0.410161 0.678463 1.064819 1.647439
2025-05-25 0.044280 0.100072 0.199103 0.375184 0.664849 1.103864 1.795585
2025-06-01 0.031519 0.081241 0.177882 0.362284 0.683466 1.193134 2.027868
2025-06-08 0.022050 0.065457 0.158228 0.348375 0.698789 1.280125 2.267981
2025-06-15 0.016799 0.056959 0.150581 0.355056 0.750766 1.432557 2.627473
2025-06-22 0.011042 0.044286 0.130480 0.333483 0.749250 1.497089 2.853972
2025-06-29 0.007438 0.035457 0.116198 0.320646 0.762197 1.588443 3.135382
2025-07-06 0.004771 0.027806 0.102496 0.307008 0.774075 1.684504 3.444446
2025-07-13 0.003337 0.023496 0.096206 0.309372 0.819948 1.849830 3.894037
2025-07-20 0.002197 0.019205 0.088134 0.305401 0.852130 1.994101 4.322032
2025-07-27 0.001504 0.016295 0.083253 0.308832 0.902233 2.180568 4.848009
2025-08-03 0.000996 0.013671 0.078071 0.310186 0.948278 2.365079 5.389049
2025-08-10 0.000547 0.010345 0.068012 0.293857 0.948482 2.454951 5.756568
2025-08-17 0.000269 0.007508 0.057788 0.273261 0.933775 2.511353 6.064033
2025-08-24 0.000148 0.005976 0.052665 0.268292 0.959965 2.661706 6.577093
2025-08-31 0.000076 0.004675 0.047574 0.261597 0.980309 2.801569 7.081521
2025-09-07 0.000047 0.004102 0.046526 0.270497 1.047815 3.059358 7.857488
2025-09-14 0.000018 0.003001 0.040461 0.256276 1.043593 3.145950 8.272788